Murphy's Patriots II 

Draft Day 2009

Begins at 4pm on Saturday, April 25. Come on down and watch in the easy going company of fellow fans.

Can it really be THAT time already? You know it folks! Draft Day is nearly here. The Pats are looking to fill some pretty big shoes this year, having said goodbye to Mike Vrabel who for so many years was the rock upon which both the defense and offense leant.  He was  a clutch player and a true leader and he will be sorely missed! So what are your draft predictions, and what will they do with that first pick? Will the Pats choose to bulk up their aging defense, or will they try to find another young hotshot to back up Tom? The one sure thing about the Pats is there is never a sure thing.  Still it's fun to speculate and Murphy's own Scott M. has been kind enough to share his thoughts below.  Let us know what you think.  Do you agree or disagree? Send us your comments and we'll post them, or join us on Facebook for a rousing discussion.  Murphy's now, thanks to Scott and Joe C. (another long time Murphy's devotee), has its very own Facebook group "Murphy's Patriots." So, if you are on Facebook, look us up! The group is open to all! Happy Draft Day, everyone! And stay tuned for future Murphy's updates as Training Camp opens and Preseason gets under way.  Go Pats!

 From the Pen of Murphy's Regulars:

(All Contributions Welcome.  Send articles to stef@patsfans4ever.com)

Regular Contributors: Scott M., Stef C.

NFL Draft 2009

Patriots Sitting Pretty in an Unpredictable Draft

April 18, 2009

By Scott McCandless

The 2009 NFL Draft promises to produce a lot of very good players but the grading and projection of those players varies widely this year. In looking over the draft publications and especially the innumerable mock drafts on the internet, the thing that stands out is how uncertain this draft could be.

Superstar players like Aaron Curry, widely considered one of the safest picks in the draft and the top linebacker on the board, shows-up everywhere from the third to eleventh slots.

The greatest disparity is among the large number of hybrid defensive end-linebacker players, with players like Everette Brown, Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers, and Larry English each being projected anywhere from 12 to 36 in a wide sampling of mock drafts and player rankings. Mike Mayock of NFL.com says Ayers may be the best defensive player in the draft, but not all agree, with some showing him slipping out of the first round.

All this is a long way of saying that the draft this year will likely be particularly unpredictable. Different teams place different values on players so there will be plenty of surprises. And teams with a lot of draft picks will have the flexibility to move around the board to get the players and value they target.

That puts the New England Patriots in a great position, since they have a first round pick, three second-round picks, and two third-round picks. Following are some thoughts about what they might do with those picks and some players that I think are of interest.

Trade Up

The Patriots have the 23rd selection with plenty of ammunition to trade-up for a player they covet. In my opinion, there are two players who fit that bill.

The first is Lousiana State defensive end Tyson Jackson. With Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and Jarvis Green among the players whose contracts expire after this season, the defensive line is a position of long-term need. Plus, it is difficult to find truly top talent for the defensive line and Jackson is perhaps the best defensive end for the 3-4 scheme that the Patriots employ. Jackson, at just under 300 pounds, reminds me of Seymour, with the ability to play 3-4 end, move inside to tackle, and get after the passer from either position. If Jackson were to slip into the early or mid-teens, a move up to get him would be worth considering.

The other player that might merit a move up is Ohio State cornerback Malcolm Jenkins. In my opinion, he is the best corner on the board, although his value to the Patriots would be in his versatility since he could also play free safety and be the all-around centerfielder type of talent that the defense badly needs. My hesitation is that the Patriots may be able to get another top player in the draft even at the 23rd spot without trading up, and still land a very good cornerback such as Connecticut's Darius Butler at the top of the second round. (Note: Butler is a rising player who may not last until the second round any longer.) Still, Jenkins would be a great addition to the defense and it is worth at least considering a move up to get him if he is available in the teens.

Stay Put

To me, staying put creates a very difficult projection for the Patriots. Unless a top talent falls to them, the way Vince Wilfork did back in 2004, then the talent available at 23 is likely to be fairly diluted. That is, there does not appear to be much difference among the players available in the 20s and those likely still available at the top of the second round. I have heard several draft observers say that this draft is stocked with talent between the 20th and 40th spots and I agree, but that means you can get better value the later the player is picked.

That said, here are some players who may be available at 23 for the Patriots' consideration.

Southern California linebacker Rey Maualuga has some question marks around him, namely that he may have trouble grasping a complex defense and that he may not be a good coverage linebacker, limiting him to a role as a two-down 'backer. I find it hard to believe that this big-hitting linebacker will slip into the 20s, but if he does, then he is worth a long look.

Personally, I prefer James Laurinaitis of Ohio State. He is a very sound technician with great tackling technique and he can drop into coverage. He doesn't have highlight-reel hits the way Maualuga does, but nor does he over-pursue or rely on a bit hit and not wrap-up like Maualuga sometimes does, either. Laurinaitis has a head for football schemes and a heart for leadership, too. He reminds me of Tedy Bruschi in a lot of ways and I think he'd be a great middle linebacker for the Patriots, but 23 may be too rich. Bruschi was a third-round pick (although he was being converted from college defensive end to pro linebacker, whereas Laurinaitis could step right in) and Laurinaitis probably rates a lower first or early second round grade. Still, I like him for the middle of this defense and, sad as it is to say, he could be an ideal long-term replacement for Bruschi, whose contract is up after this season.

Regarding the outside linebackers, I see Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing, both of USC, as better fits in a 4-3 defense than in New England's 3-4. The trick to this draft is unlocking which of the college defensive ends can make the transition to 3-4 outside linebacker. I think Florida State's Everette Brown and Tennessee's Robert Ayers can do it, but both could be gone by 23. Remember when considering Ayers that the Patriots found great success with one Tennessee player last year in Jerod Mayo.

The next-best outside linebacker prospect is Northern Illinois' Larry English, who might be "just right" -- a pass-rushing demon who, at over 255 pounds, can probably stack against the run well enough to set an edge. English might still be available later in the first round or even into the second round, and his level of competition at Northern Illinois is a concern. But his drive, determination, and relentless pass rushing skills make him hard to resist.

Other rush linebackers like Connor Barwin or Clint Sintim seem to be second round prospects. Finally, it is worth noting that signing a veteran like Jason Taylor would allow the Patriots to address other needs with the 23rd pick.

If the Patriots do not trade-up for a defensive lineman like Jackson, they could take Missouri's "Ziggy" Hood at 23. Hood is a 300-pound bruiser who could play 3-4 end or nose tackle. He would be good value even if a less exciting pick, since his impact would likely be longer-term than in his rookie year.

The one obvious trend here is the focus on defense. If the Patriots were to go offense in round one, then taking the top tight end on the board, Brandon Pettigrew, could be tempting at 23. Pettigrew is a solid blocker and good pass-catcher, meaning he has the total package at tight end. However, from what I have seen of him, he looked more than solid but less than dominating. I would rather get a tight end like Florida's Cornelius Ingram or South Carolina's Jared Cook later in the draft.

Trade It

One thing I haven't mentioned is the possibility of landing a veteran player by trading away the pick, or by trading down in this draft or into next year's draft. Frankly, with the amount of talent available in this year's second round, I think it will be hard for the Patriots to trade down, because other teams can wait for a lot of talented players to fall to them, depriving the Patriots of willing trade partners.

So is there a veteran out there worth trading the 23rd pick to obtain? Certainly Julius Peppers comes to mind immediately, but I still it find hard to believe the Patriots would pay the salary that Peppers will likely demand. Not only would they have to come to contract terms, but the Patriots would also have to pay a healthy ransom to the Carolina Panthers to pry away their star defender. The Patriots have the draft picks to do it, though. Some question whether Peppers could make the move to linebacker after playing rush end throughout his career. I think he has the athleticism to make that transition successfully and I would like to see the damage he could inflict on opposing offenses while doing it. If Peppers can be had, I don't think there is much better the Patriots could do with that 23rd pick than use it to land this star defender. I am all for it happening if the money side is workable.

Here, then, are the first-round scenarios for the Patriots:

Trade up to get Tyson Jackson or Malcolm Jenkins

Stay put and take (1) a falling player like Rey Maualuga or Robert Ayers, (2) a defensive lineman like Ziggy Hood, (3) the best blocking tight end in the draft in Brandon Pettigrew, or (4) a slight reach for an outside linebacker like Larry English

Trade down or into next year's draft, and use the multiple second-round picks to stock-up on the high-value, lower-cost players that will be in abundance there

Trade for a veteran like Julius Peppers

As for the second round, it could be a very target-rich environment, as the saying goes. Perhaps cornerback Darius Butler would be available, and he is a playmaker on defense who can also return punts and even line up at wide receiver. But he is a fast riser and the Patriots may now have to take him at 23 to secure his rights. (Ironically, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick may be partly responsible for Butler's ascension up the draft charts, since Belichick attended Butler's workouts at Connecticut's "pro day" in person, heightening league-wide interest in UConn prospects like Butler and running back Donald Brown.)

The second round may also be the place to take a chance on West Virginia quarterback Pat White, whose versatility to play under center, split out wide, and on special teams allows the Patriots to save game-day roster space while creating mismatches for opposing defenses, making him very valuable.

I also like the idea of taking a safety like Oregon's Patrick Chung in the second round. He is an "in the box" safety who could support the run and cover tight ends. Missouri's Will Moore would be a good pick perhaps in the third round if Chung is not available.

Prediction

Enough equivocating -- who will the Patriots pick in the first round?

The pass rush, or lack of it, was infuriating last year. As obvious as it may seem to target a player who can attempt to replace Mike Vrabel, I think that's what the Patriots try to do, with either Robert Ayers if he's available or Larry English. I think they make that pick even if Rey Maualuga is available at 23.

Several national commentators from SI's Don Banks to NFL.com's Mike Mayock are projecting the Patriots to take Darius Butler at 23. I'd be happy with that pick but also surprised by it if they go direction rather than address other needs.

The wild card is Julius Peppers. If that deal can be done financially, then I'd rather land him than any of the draft picks likely to be available at 23.

The Draft starts at 4 p.m. on Saturday, April 25th. If they stay at 23, the Patriots should be making their first pick around 6:30 p.m. or so that night. Many of us plan to be at Murphy's to watch, and we hope you can join us!